Expectations and Realities: Week 1 AP Top 25 College Football Teams

Week 1 of college football has come and gone. While we wait for the polls to update, let us take a moment and see how each of the teams in the AP top 25 poll performed relative to their predictions.

In the table below you will find the 25 teams ranked in the AP preseason poll, the predicted spread, the actual result, and the percent error. The teams are sorted based on how well the team performed based on the spread for that game. Teams with a positive percent error performed better than expected while teams with a negative percent error underperformed. Note: this is not a measure of if a team won or lost a game, rather a measure of how well the team won or lost the game. For example, Oregon beat South Dakota 62-13. Oregon won their game in convincing fashion. However, Oregon was expecting to win by 54 points, but won by 49 points.

Relative Performance of AP Top 25 College Football Teams

Rank Team Opponent Spread Actual %Error
21 Texas A&M South Carolina 10 -24 340.0%
12 Georgia Clemson -9.5 -24 152.6%
22 Nebraska Florida Atlantic -20 -48 140.0%
18 Ole Miss Boise State -10 -22 120.0%
15 USC Fresno State -18.5 -39 110.8%
17 Notre Dame Rice -19.5 -31 59.0%
6 Auburn Arkansas -17 -24 41.2%
10 Baylor Southern Methodist -33 -45 36.4%
5 Ohio State Navy -13.5 -17 25.9%
13 LSU Wisconsin -3.5 -4 14.3%
8 Michigan State Jacksonville State -34.5 -38 10.1%
11 Stanford UC Davis -42.5 -45 5.9%
4 Oklahoma LA Tech -33.5 -32 -4.5%
20 Kansas State Stephen F. Austin -42 -39 -7.1%
3 Oregon South Dakota -53.5 -49 -8.4%
23 North Carolina Liberty -31 -27 -12.9%
14 Wisconsin LSU 3.5 4 -14.3%
24 Missouri South Dakota State -25.5 -20 -21.6%
19 Arizona State Weber State -46 -31 -32.6%
2 Alabama West VA -23 -10 -56.5%
7 UCLA Virginia -19 -8 -57.9%
1 Florida State Oklahoma State -20.5 -6 -70.7%
25 Washington Hawaii -17.5 -1 -94.3%
16 Clemson Georgia 9.5 24 -152.6%
9 South Carolina Texas A&M -10 24 -340.0%

I’ve added the following chart to help you visualize the data.

The first 12 teams in the table exceeded expectations while the bottom 13 underperformed. Texas A&M, ranked 21, tops the table exceeding predictions by 340% outscoring number 9 South Carolina 52-28. Expectedly, South Carolina underperformed by 340%. Defending national champions Florida State struggled in their opener underperforming by 70.7% against Oklahoma State. Georgia/Clemson and LSU/Wisconsin games were other notable games as it marks the only other two Ranked teams that lost their opener. The Georgia/Clemson game had an error of 152.6% while the LSU/Wisconsin game had an error of 14.3%. While Georgia trumped Clemson in a 2nd half shut out, LSU rallied in the second half to edge out their spread by half a point against Wisconsin.

On average, the ACC underperformed by 78.8% while the SEC exceeded expectations by an average of 31.3%. Below are the conference averages.

ACC          -78.8%

PAC 12     -12.8%

Big 10       18.0%

Big 12       30.1%

SEC           31.3%

IND           59.0%

Important notes:

1. Spreads can be found at vegasinsider.com.

2. Percent error is calculated as (Spread-Actual)/Abs(Spread)

3. If you like what you see here (or don’t) let me know below. You can also point out mistakes or criticize the article.

The Truth about Immigration

Immigrants bring more crime. Wrong. Native-born American men between 18-39 are five times more likely to be incarcerated than immigrants in the same demographic. Numerous reputable studies have shown that the problem of crime in the United States is not caused or even aggravated by immigrants, regardless of their legal status.

Immigrants are taking our jobs. Wrong. CNN reports that immigrants are twice as likely to start businesses as U.S.-born citizens and that immigrants create 28% of all new businesses. Moreover, some immigrants work jobs Americans simply do not want. They are farm workers, janitors, chambermaids, busboys, dishwashers, gardeners, nannies, and household domestics. Those are not the careers most Americans seek. The “good jobs” they do “steal” are just because they’re better in that fieldnot because they’re immigrants (see below).

We need to secure the border first before tackling immigration reform.  Well for starters, the net migration from Mexico has practically fallen to zero. The federal government has spent more money on immigration enforcement ($18 billion) than they have on FBI, Secret Service, Drug Enforcement Administration, U.S. Marshalls, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives combined ($14.4 million). The government also spends about 15 times more on immigration enforcement than it did in the mid-1980s, adjusted for inflation. There are more than 20,000 border patrol agents stationed along the border now. So the border is quite secure right now. Lastly, roughly 40% of undocumented immigrants enter the US legally and overstay their visas.

America doesn’t want immigrants here. Well, quite the contrary, most Americans don’t want to kick them all out. In a Fox News Poll, it showed that 74% of the people they polled were in favor of allowing the 11 million illegal immigrant currently in the country to remain in the country and eventually years down the road qualify for U.S. citizenship, as long as they meet certain requirements like paying back taxes, learning English, and passing a background check.

Obama is giving the country to the illegal immigrants. This could be challenged. The Obama Administration has deported as many illegal immigrants in one term as the Bush Administration did in two. In fact, Obama is on track to deport more people than the US did from 1892-1997. As stated earlier, the Obama Administration has put many resources in stopping illegals.

Illegal aliens don’t contribute to the U.S. economy and they don’t pay taxes. I’m pretty sure everybody in this country pays taxes when they purchase anything. Most undocumented immigrants live in Texas and Florida. Neither state has a state income tax. When it comes to federal income tax—well, I believe we should be more concerned about the $305 billion revenue lost due to tax evasion for current US citizens.

Immigrants don’t contribute anything to the country. Currently, one in six college-educated adults in the US was born abroad. There are roughly 35 million immigrants ages 25 and older in America. Of those, 28% had a bachelor’s degree or higher (compared to 29% of American adults 25 and older). Immigrants represent nearly 28% of physicians, more than 31% of computer programmers, and over 47% of medical scientists.

The Truth. We need immigration reform YESTERDAY! This country was founded upon immigration. Keep the American vision alive by demanding that we become the Land of Opportunity again!