Top 5 Reasons to Quit Your Job (and Yet Remain Employable)

Photo: http://janeencarlberglaw.com/

Photo: http://janeencarlberglaw.com/

If you have followed my career at all, you are well aware that I have been around the block a few times when it comes to employers.  Most of that has to do with the short-term and long-term repercussions of changing careers two years after college because of the M-word—marriage (which I thoroughly enjoy, by the way).

This career change has taught me a lot about recruiting, interviewing, vetting, and networking.  But it has also taught me a whole lot about quitting.  Fancier people may call it “resigning” or “seeking new opportunities,” but regardless, there is an art and science to being able to quit without it being seen as a negative attribute on your resume.  So without further ado, here are the top 5 most acceptable and commendable reasons to quit your current job.

(1) Unethical and Unsafe Work Environment

This is my number one because it has the biggest impact on your future employment.   If you are with an employer that does not truthfully prohibit unethical and unsafe characteristics then you will probably be hurt more by staying than if you quit.  Please turn in your two-week notice immediately if your boss or a significant portion of management are guilty of doing or accepting the following:

  • lying to customers and suppliers
  • using sexual or suggestive language
  • touching coworkers sexually or inappropriately
  • drinking alcohol or doing drugs on the job
  • consistently paying workers late or not paying at all
  • making racist comments or jokes
  • letting jealousy and anger affect decision-making
  • endangering workers with poor safety practices or no safety practices
  • doing other inappropriate behavior

(2) Becoming a Stay-at-Home Parent

This is a very tough (or very easy) decision for many families to make.  If this decision is something you and your spouse are going through currently, then please do not be pressured into feeling you have to work outside the home to be a fully developed human being.  Being a stay-at-home parent is perfectly acceptable as long as you can pay your bills on-time and not accumulate debts.

In order to prepare for this season in life, try living on only one income for 3 months while you are still working.  If you succeed at this task, then go ahead and let your employer know your family’s decision for you to become a stay-at-home parent.  And again, please do not feel pressured into staying at work.  And please, only come back to work when you want to come back to work.

(3) Spouse Works Significantly Far Away

Often this affects newly married couples and military couples the most.   It also affects couples who have a spouse that has received a dream job offer in a distant city.   If you and your spouse work with employers that are hundreds and thousands of miles apart, then you have a pretty arduous decision ahead of you: determining which one of you has to quit.

This can be very difficult because both spouses may love their jobs; however, spouses need to love each other more than their jobs.  Firstly, seek to see if you can just transfer within your current company.  Secondly, if this is not possible or takes too much lead-time, then you will have to quit.  This does not have to be an immediate resignation, but you definitely need to get the ball rolling in that direction.

(4) Becoming an Entrepreneur

Do not do this on a whim.  Only do this if your hobby or “side hustle” has become lucrative enough that you can afford to quit your day job.  The romanticism of being a business owner fades quickly if you cannot put food on your dinner table.  However, if your business is capable of paying you similarly to or more than what you are making currently, then by all means, quit!

Careful: Just be sure not to burn any bridges with your current employer. You may need them to hire you back in the future if your business flops.

(5) Seeking More Pay or More Opportunity

Sometimes you reach the proverbial glass ceiling.  Many large companies do not give pay increases very often, or they give pay increases yearly but at a 1% or 2% rate.  Meanwhile, many smaller companies only have a handful of employees so opportunities for promotion are pretty slim.  In order to grow and reach your potential, you are going to have to quit.  However, make sure you have a new job first!

Depending on the situation, some people may call you greedy for making a move.  Take their opinion with a grain of salt though—while your mentors may have your best interest at heart, other people may just be green-eyed with envy.

ARE THERE ANY OTHER VALID REASONS TO QUIT BESIDES THESE?

Expectations and Realities: Week 3 AP Top 25 College Football Teams

Welcome to the 3rd week of breaking down the top 25 teams’ performance compared to their expectations. Here are the results of week 1 and week 2 if want to see previous performance comparisons. In that article, you will find comparisons of vegasinsider.com’s lines for the AP top 25 teams to the actual scores for that week’s games. Here are the results of week 3.

This week Nebraska and North Carolina fell out of the top 25 and will not be included in this week’s results.

In the Table 1 and Figure 1 below you will find the 25 teams ranked in the AP preseason poll, the predicted spread, the actual result, and the percent error. The teams are sorted based on how well the team performed based on the spread for that game. Teams with a positive percent error performed better than expected, or covered the spread, while teams with a negative percent error underperformed, or did not cover the spread. Note: this is not a measure if a team won or lost a game, rather a measure of how well the team won or lost the game. For example, Oklahoma was expected to beat Tennessee by 21 but outscored them by 24 points. Oklahoma performed 14% better than predicted.

Rank Team Opponent Spread Actual %Error
24 South Carolina Georgia 6.5 -9.5 246%
20 Missouri Central Florida -10.5 -28 167%
22 Ohio State Kent State -31 -66 113%
14 Ole Miss LA-Lafayette -27 -41 52%
8 Baylor Buffalo -33.5 -42 25%
15 Stanford Army -30 -35 17%
4 Oklahoma Tennessee -21 -24 14%
10 LSU Louisiana Monroe -31 -31 0%
3 Alabama Southern Miss -46 -40 -13%
7 Texas A&M Rice -32.5 -28 -14%
16 Arizona State Colorado -16.5 -14 -15%
2 Oregon Wyoming -43.5 -34 -22%
21 Louisville East Carolina -14.5 -10 -31%
11 Notre Dame Purdue -30 -16 -47%
25 Brigham Young Houston -17 -8 -53%
12 UCLA Texas -8.5 -3 -65%
9 USC Boston College -17 23 -235%
6 Georgia South Carolina -6.5 9.5 -246%
17 Virginia Tech East Carolina -10 17 -270%

Spreads come from vegasinsider.com.

Florida State, Auburn, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Clemson, and Kansas State each had bye weeks. They are not included in the table. LSU is the first team in 3 weeks to push the spread. South Carolina exceeded predictions by the largest margin with the upset over Georgia. Virginia Tech had the worst performance after being upset by East Carolina.

Now that we are in the 3rd week of college football we have enough data for some statistics. Teams with byes this week will not be included in this analysis due to insufficient data. Georgia is also excluded since they had a bye week last week. A single factor analysis of variance (ANOVA) reveals that there is no statistical difference in percent error across the first three weeks of play (p=0.556). The results of head to head Tukey multiple comparison statistical matchups can be found here. This means that, on average, all teams have performed in a similar manner relative to their expectations.

While there may not be any differences now, there might be some practical information to be taken from the data. Below are four boxplots to aid in understanding the data. Figure 2 shows the percent error for top 25 teams that have played at least three games. Typically, I would not show this sort of figure. The graph is crowded. However, notice how BYU’s average percent error dwarfs the other teams. This is skewed due to their week two game vs Texas. They were expected to lose by one point but ended up winning by a convincing 34 points. For now, this is considered an outlier and BYU is removed from the analysis. The remaining 17 teams are portrayed in Figures 3 through 5.

Figure 2 – Boxplots of Percent Error for AP Top 25 Teams that Have Played 3 or More Games

There are three important details in Figure 3. Firstly, that the percent error is relatively variable, except for Baylor. Baylor has a median error rate of 36% and has exceeded expectations for all three weeks. Next notice that, so far, Alabama has been underperforming without a single positive error rate in the first three weeks. Finally, LSU has been meeting or exceeding expectations in all of three weeks.

Figure 3 – Boxplots of Percent Error for Alabama, Arizona State, Baylor, Louisville and LSU

The data in Figure 4 is more straightforward. Of the six teams pictured, only Ole Miss is consistently winning against the spread with percent errors of 120%, 105%, and 52% for weeks one, two and three respectively. The percent errors for the other teams in Figure 4 are too variable for any discernible patterns.

Figure 4 – Boxplots of Percent Error for Missouri, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Oregon

With the exception of UCLA, the percent error for teams in Figure 5 is too great. Each team has had weeks were they beat the spread and others where they did not. However, UCLA has consistently not beaten the spread with a median percent error of -65%.

Figure 5 – Boxplots of Percent Error for South Carolina, Stanford, Texas A&M, UCLA, USC, and Virginia Tech

This week’s takeaways: If Baylor, LSU, and Ole Miss keep the same pace, bet against the spread. Bet that Alabama or UCLA won’t cover the spread if they continue the same pattern.

 

Important notes:

  1. Spreads can be found at vegasinsider.com.
  2. Percent error is calculated as (Spread-Actual)/Abs(Spread)
  3. I understand that spreads are typically used for gambling purposes and that the lines move. However, it is important for the spreads to reasonably accurate in order for the house or bookie to make money. Lines are a consistent source of weekly predictions.

Vaccines, Lightning, Lottery: What Are the Odds?

The odds of being killed in a tornado in a given year are 1 in 5,693,092.

The odds of being struck by lightning in a given year are 1 in 1,107,143.

The odds of winning the grand prize in the lottery are 1 in 175,223,510.

Thank you Mr. Lottery!

Why am I mentioning this? Why is it even relevant? Surely almost all of you have been through a tornado and survived, right? Surely every single one of you reading this has seen lightning and are still alive, right? And I am going out on a limb here, but almost certainly none of you reading this has ever won the grand prize of the lottery, correct?

I am bringing these statistics up for one simple reason: vaccines.

Yes, the scary and extremely controversial subject that somehow science doesn’t understand yet we are still pumping our kids full of them. Well, why don’t we look at some data?

Per: National Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP) Adjudication Categories by Vaccine for Claims Filed Calendar Year 2006 to Present.

Vaccine Alleged by Petitioner

No. of Doses Distributed US CY 2006 – CY 2013 (Source: CDC)

Compensable

Compensable Total

Dismissed/ Non-Compensable Total

Grand Total

Concession

Court Decision

Settlement

DT

652,327

1

3

4

4

8

DTaP

75,888,233

10

17

71

98

72

170

DTaP-Hep B-IPV

43,929,797

4

6

18

28

38

66

DTaP-HIB

1,135,474

0

1

1

DTaP-IPV-HIB

39,590,896

5

5

11

16

DTP

04

1

2

3

2

5

DTP-HIB

04

0

1

1

Hep A-Hep B

11,662,755

8

8

1

9

Hep B-HIB

4,796,583

1

1

1

3

1

4

Hepatitis A (Hep A)

124,212,280

2

4

20

26

18

44

Hepatitis B (Hep B)

129,820,136

2

10

35

47

34

81

HIB

83,517,849

1

4

5

4

9

HPV

67,250,524

10

62

71

80

151

Influenza5

944,000,000

36

67

728

831

165

996

IPV

58,019,052

4

4

2

6

Measles

135,660

1

1

1

Meningococcal

58,412,363

1

1

22

24

3

27

MMR

73,441,556

15

13

52

80

69

149

MMR-Varicella

11,028,270

8

7

15

8

23

Nonqualified6

N/A

0

21

21

OPV

0

1

1

3

4

Vaccine Alleged by Petitioner

No. of Doses Distributed US CY 2006 – CY 2013 (Source: CDC)

Compensable

Compensable Total

Dismissed/ Non-Compensable Total

Grand Total

Concession

Court Decision

Settlement

Pneumococcal Conjugate

132,932,107

1

5

6

13

19

Rotavirus

70,719,103

1

3

15

19

6

25

Rubella

422,548

1

1

1

Td

55,742,830

4

5

49

58

15

73

Tdap

155,106,848

11

6

74

91

11

102

TETANUS

3,836,052

3

17

20

10

30

Unspecified7

N/A

1

2

3

541

544

Varicella

90,425,492

3

5

20

28

10

38

Grand Total

2,236,678,735

114

142

1,225

1,480

1,144

2,624

Guys, this is it. This is all of the actual cases taken to court that has found vaccines accountable for an injury. All of them.

I honestly don’t want to hear,”What about the shots that the parents never took the kids to trial over!” That is a terrible argument. If your kid were “vaccine injured” and “regressed to autism,” would you not seek out legal help? There are ambulance chasers plastered over every city that work for free if no money is won, are you telling me they won’t do the same in HUGE money cases like this?

Rant over. What we see here is this: There is a 0.0000013% chance of your kid suffering an injury from a vaccine. You have a 1 in 1,300,000 chance of being injured from vaccines. Sure, you have better chance of being injured by vaccines than winning the lottery and being killed by tornadoes. Lets throw lottery out. Lets look at tornadoes. You are a little less than 5 times more likely to be injured by vaccines than you are to be killed by a tornado. That is not much. Are you fleeing tornado zones in mass exodus? No.

You are MORE likely to be injured in a lightning strike than you are by a vaccine. Do you cry foul and petition to the government to end lightning? No!

The numbers do not lie. They simply do not. If you are against vaccines, you have a 99.9999987% reason to not be. And after that, well, you are simply pleading ignorance.

Expectations and Realities: Week 2 AP Top 25 College Football Teams

Last week I reported how top 25 teams performed relative to their expectations. In that article I compared vegasinsider.com’s lines for the AP top 25 teams to the actual scores for that week’s games. Here is week 2’s comparison.

During the first week of college football, Washington was the only team to drop from the top 25. Louisville replaced them for the 25th spot. Because of this, Washington was not included this week.

In the table below you will find the 25 teams ranked in the AP preseason poll, the predicted spread, the actual result, and the percent error. The teams are sorted based on how well the team performed based on the spread for that game. Teams with a positive percent error performed better than expected while teams with a negative percent error underperformed. Note: this is not a measure if a team won or lost a game, rather a measure of how well the team won or lost the game. For example, Texas A&M was predicted to beat Lamar by 46.5 points but outscored them by 70 points. Texas A&M performed 50% better than predicted.

Relative Performance of Week 2 AP Top 25 College Football Teams

Rank Team Opponent Spread Actual %Error
16 Notre Dame Michigan -4 -31 675%
24 Missouri Toledo -3.5 -25 614%
14 USC Stanford 3 -3 200%
15 Ole MIss Vanderbilt -18.5 -38 105%
23 Clemson South Carolina State -34 -66 94%
4 Oklahoma Tulsa -24.5 -45 84%
12 LSU Sam Houston State -32 -56 75%
9 Texas A&M Lamar -46.5 -70 51%
17 Arizona State New Mexico -24.5 -35 43%
3 Oregon Michigan State -13.5 -19 41%
10 Baylor Northwestern State -46.5 -64 38%
5 Auburn San Jose State -34 -46 35%
25 Louisville Murray State -35.5 -45 27%
6 Georgia Bye 0 0 0%
2 Alabama Florida Atlantic -42 -41 -2%
18 Wisconsin Western Illinois -41 -34 -17%
21 South Carolina East Carolina -14.5 -10 -31%
7 Michigan State Oregon 13.5 19 -41%
1 Florida State Citadel -56.5 -25 -56%
20 Kansas State Iowa State -12 -4 -67%
11 UCLA Memphis -22.5 -7 -69%
22 North Carolina San Diego State -14.5 -4 -72%
19 Nebraska McNeese State -35.5 -7 -80%
13 Stanford USC -3 3 -200%
8 Ohio State Virginia Tech -10 14 -240%

Use the following chart to help visualize the data in the table.

Many teams played easy opponents during week 2 as you can tell by the number of 30+ point spreads. However, there were some games that were predicted to be close. The most surprising win this week, for a top 25 team, comes from Notre Dame’s 31-0 shutout over Michigan. Notre Dame was favored by 4 points. This indicates that it was expected to be a close game that instead resulted in a blowout.

The first 14 teams in the table exceeded expectations while the bottom 11 underperformed.The top 3 overachievers this week were Notre Dame (675%), Missouri (614%), and USC (200%). The top 3 underperformers this week were Ohio State (-240%), Stanford (-200%), and Nebraska (-80%).

 

Important notes:

1. Spreads can be found at vegasinsider.com.

2. Percent error is calculated as

3. I understand that spreads are typically used for gambling purposes and that the lines move. However, it is important for the spreads to reasonably accurate in order for the house or bookie to make money. Lines are a consistent source of weekly predictions

How Good is Cam Newton?

Cam Newton is an overall number 1 pick, and he now can add quarterback of a playoff team to his resume’. Newton is already being credited for the Panthers’ 2013 success where they finished 12-4.  In this same season, Newton is credited for his increase in productivity compared to the year before. This is how it goes in football. QBs get all the chicks but also lose the chicks when the team play suffers.

When the Panthers were disappointing the previous years, all you heard were stories about his immaturity and how he doesn’t take the game seriously. Fast forward one incredible defensive season later, Cam is now the next Tom Brady and about to ring off a series of Super Bowl wins. The narrative changes with team very quickly.

Cam Newton training with Chris Weinke at IMG Academy

Superstar? The numbers say average.

I personally found that the turnaround had more to do with the Panther’s incredible defense. Per Football Outsiders, the Panthers defense ranked 3rd in DVOA. DVOA, in this instance, measures just how good a defense is on a per play basis. The Panthers ranked 3rd allowing -18.0% less value per play than the average team. The Seahawks were number one with a legendary DVOA of -30.0%. While the Panthers weren’t the Seahawks, they were pretty damn good. The Panthers were the number 1 overall pass defense on DVOA, even better than the vaunted Seahawks. When we are talking about a clear top 3 defense, you are going to win games.

Carolina Panthers defense tackles RB Alfred Morris (46).

Here are the real superstars of the Panthers.

Back to Cam Newton. How much of a help was he in obtaining this 12-4 turnaround? And how does he stack up against others? Lets have a look shall we.

Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement

DYAR tells us exactly that. How many yards, adjusted for defense, is a QB worth over a league average replacement. Newton places a very pedestrian 17th with a DYAR of 421. It definitely speaks well that he is an above average player, but at a 17 ranking, he seems to be only that, slightly above average. Andy Dalton and Carson Palmer are just ahead of Newton in these rankings. Hardly superstar status (although Cincy feels the need to pay Dalton like he is one).

Andy Dalton

To say Dalton didn’t deserve his contract is an understatement.

Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average

DVOA represents a per play measurement of how good a QB is over an average QB in the same situation. Newton actually falls back a little bit to a 19 ranking with a small 1.7% more value than an average player. Again, above average but ever so slightly. These rankings put Newton behind Josh McCown and in a league with Dalton, Palmer, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. If we are giving Cam credit, the credit seems to be vastly overstated.

Cam Newton

Cam needs to hone his passing skills.

Cam’s Passing

Cam Newton training with Chris Weinke at IMG Academy

Having seen Cam’s passing numbers, he honestly looks like a very league average QB. However, he does do some extras to bump up his passing value and overall value (which we will get to). He had a very strong 24TDs to only 13 INTs. That’s a positive ratio that is more indicative of a top 10 QB. He needs to throw more TDs, but as long as his INTs are down, it’s a major plus.

At this point, Newton probably sits as the 15th best passer in the league. I would place Andy Dalton ahead of him, but Palmer and Fitzpatrick don’t quite bring his low INT rate skill. C+ passing grade.

Cam’s Running

Now here is where Cam shines a little bit more. Cam has a DYAR of 102 for a rank of 5th. No matter how you slice it, picking up extra yards on the ground is a valuable skill and he excels at it. His DVOA falls to 24th, however, that is a case of him taking off too much. He can get the yards, but he needs to reel it back in from time to time and make sure each play is getting maximum value. Newton had 6 TDs running it, which is a huge plus. He also had 2 fumbles, but that is to be expected. Still a nice ratio of scoring to turnovers.

Newton is a good runner. I would give his rushing a B+.

Cam Newton Jersey

So Where Does He Sit?

Cam Newton is no superstar, and he had minimal to do with the Panthers turnaround. He shouldn’t receive the praise and credit, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t bring value. Overall, I would say Cam Newton is somewhere between the 12th and 16th best QB in the league. He is good but only slightly good. You see a lot of positives in his game and you hope that he continues to grow.

But please, hold the superstar praise for when he actually deserves it.

Are You Really the Luckiest Woman in the World?

I see it every single day. Someone gets a pretty sweet gift and proclaims, “I am the luckiest woman in the world for getting gift x!!!” Sure, we are elated to get gifts and surprises and may be slightly hyperbolic when we get these things. But is there any truth to the claims? I have decided to put some of these claims under the scrutiny of data and see if you really have a claim to being the luckiest woman in the world.

(Please keep in mind this is a tongue-in-cheek piece. I am sure everything about you is simply splendid. Do your thing, girl.)

Claim: I am the luckiest woman in the world to have such a great job.

Doctor Claire

According to Forbes, the happiest job for a woman (factoring in salary, job growth, and job satisfaction) is a diagnostic medical doctor. The median income for this job is $121,000 and has an estimated job growth of 27% through 2020. Pretty sweet gig.

So how many women are doctors? There are approximately 202,000 female doctors in the United States. Out of those, only 11,000 earn in the top 10% ($233,000) of doctors. These salaries are based off of a general practitioner.

Conclusion: Unless you are a doctor earning in excess of $233,000, you do not have a valid claim.

Claim: I am the luckiest woman in the world because my kids are so amazing.

Gregory Smith could read by 2, enrolled in college by 10, is a children’s rights activist, and was nominated for a Nobel Peace Prize at the tender age of 12.

Michael Kearney graduated college at 10, was a teacher at age 17, spoke his first words at 4 months, was once the youngest post graduate, diagnosed his own ear infection at the age of six months, and is a millionaire.

Alexis Martin was one of the youngest people to ever be accepted into Mensa, at the age of 3. She has the same IQ as Stepehn Hawking and Albert Einstein.

And just for good measure, literally everyone on this list:

http://www.thebestschools.org/features/worlds-50-smartest-teenagers/

Conclusion: Are one of these kids yours? Claim invalid.

Claim: I am the luckiest woman in the world because I am married to the most handsome man  in the world.

Omar Borkan Al Gala was deported from his country because he was so handsome, officials thought he would give women immoral thoughts. Hold on, I am going to re-type something: HE WAS DEPORTED FROM A COUNTRY FOR BEING TOO FUCKING HOT.

Ok, just wanted everyone to be clear on that.

Conclusion: Your husband is not Omar Borkan Al Gala

Omar Borkan Al Gala...Deported From Saudi Arabia 4 Being To Handsome (Panties Drop)

Claim: I am the luckiest woman in the world because my husband is the smartest man alive

This is easy. Is your husband Stephen Hawking (160 IQ), Christopher Langan (205) , Kim Ung-Yong (210), Paul Allen (170), Rick Rosner (192), Gary Kasparov (190), Andrew Wiles (170), Judit Polgar (for you ladies who love the ladies, 170), Christopher Hirata (225), Terrance Tao (230), or Evangelos Katsioulis (198)?

Only 0.5% of the population have an IQ over 140.

Conclusion: Probably not.

Claim: I got diamonds. I am the luckiest woman in the world.

In 1905 a man named Frederick Wells discovered a rough diamond that was 3,106 carats. Named the Cullinan, it was later cut into 100 smaller diamonds. The largest of those being 530 carats.

Actual-size replica of Cullinan Diamond.

Actual size replica of the Cullinan

In 2012, the Taj Mahal diamond sold for 8.8 million dollars.

The Elizabeth Taylor Diamond sold for $265,697 per carat and 8.8 million for the whole stone.

The total amount that Elizabeth Taylor jewelry collection sold for was 137.2 million dollars.

Conclusion: You do not have any of these diamonds.

Regardless of what I say, having happiness and love makes all of us the luckiest people on earth.

Expectations and Realities: Week 1 AP Top 25 College Football Teams

Week 1 of college football has come and gone. While we wait for the polls to update, let us take a moment and see how each of the teams in the AP top 25 poll performed relative to their predictions.

In the table below you will find the 25 teams ranked in the AP preseason poll, the predicted spread, the actual result, and the percent error. The teams are sorted based on how well the team performed based on the spread for that game. Teams with a positive percent error performed better than expected while teams with a negative percent error underperformed. Note: this is not a measure of if a team won or lost a game, rather a measure of how well the team won or lost the game. For example, Oregon beat South Dakota 62-13. Oregon won their game in convincing fashion. However, Oregon was expecting to win by 54 points, but won by 49 points.

Relative Performance of AP Top 25 College Football Teams

Rank Team Opponent Spread Actual %Error
21 Texas A&M South Carolina 10 -24 340.0%
12 Georgia Clemson -9.5 -24 152.6%
22 Nebraska Florida Atlantic -20 -48 140.0%
18 Ole Miss Boise State -10 -22 120.0%
15 USC Fresno State -18.5 -39 110.8%
17 Notre Dame Rice -19.5 -31 59.0%
6 Auburn Arkansas -17 -24 41.2%
10 Baylor Southern Methodist -33 -45 36.4%
5 Ohio State Navy -13.5 -17 25.9%
13 LSU Wisconsin -3.5 -4 14.3%
8 Michigan State Jacksonville State -34.5 -38 10.1%
11 Stanford UC Davis -42.5 -45 5.9%
4 Oklahoma LA Tech -33.5 -32 -4.5%
20 Kansas State Stephen F. Austin -42 -39 -7.1%
3 Oregon South Dakota -53.5 -49 -8.4%
23 North Carolina Liberty -31 -27 -12.9%
14 Wisconsin LSU 3.5 4 -14.3%
24 Missouri South Dakota State -25.5 -20 -21.6%
19 Arizona State Weber State -46 -31 -32.6%
2 Alabama West VA -23 -10 -56.5%
7 UCLA Virginia -19 -8 -57.9%
1 Florida State Oklahoma State -20.5 -6 -70.7%
25 Washington Hawaii -17.5 -1 -94.3%
16 Clemson Georgia 9.5 24 -152.6%
9 South Carolina Texas A&M -10 24 -340.0%

I’ve added the following chart to help you visualize the data.

The first 12 teams in the table exceeded expectations while the bottom 13 underperformed. Texas A&M, ranked 21, tops the table exceeding predictions by 340% outscoring number 9 South Carolina 52-28. Expectedly, South Carolina underperformed by 340%. Defending national champions Florida State struggled in their opener underperforming by 70.7% against Oklahoma State. Georgia/Clemson and LSU/Wisconsin games were other notable games as it marks the only other two Ranked teams that lost their opener. The Georgia/Clemson game had an error of 152.6% while the LSU/Wisconsin game had an error of 14.3%. While Georgia trumped Clemson in a 2nd half shut out, LSU rallied in the second half to edge out their spread by half a point against Wisconsin.

On average, the ACC underperformed by 78.8% while the SEC exceeded expectations by an average of 31.3%. Below are the conference averages.

ACC          -78.8%

PAC 12     -12.8%

Big 10       18.0%

Big 12       30.1%

SEC           31.3%

IND           59.0%

Important notes:

1. Spreads can be found at vegasinsider.com.

2. Percent error is calculated as (Spread-Actual)/Abs(Spread)

3. If you like what you see here (or don’t) let me know below. You can also point out mistakes or criticize the article.

Apollo’s Preseason College Football Predictions

SEC Championship Game: #3 Alabama 11-1 (24) vs. #5 UGA 11-1 (17)

Big Ten Championship Game: #1 Michigan State 12-0 (32) vs. #14 Wisconsin 10-2 (10)

ACC Championship Game: #4 Florida State 11-1 (38) vs. #19 Miami 9-3 (15)

PAC-12 Championship Game: #2 Oregon 11-1 (34) vs. #9 UCLA 10-2 (28)

Big XII Champions: #6 Baylor 11-1

College Football Playoffs Seeding

#1 Michigan State vs #4 Florida State

#2 Oregon vs. #3 Alabama

 

Heisman Trophy

Todd Gurley (Winner)

Marcus Mariota

Kenny Hill

Jameis Winston

Bryce Petty


Coach of the Year

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Biggest Surprises

Texas Longhorns, Penn State Nittany Lions, and Texas A&M Aggies

Biggest Disappointments

Clemson Tigers, South Carolina Gamecocks, USC Trojans

The Truth about Immigration

Immigrants bring more crime. Wrong. Native-born American men between 18-39 are five times more likely to be incarcerated than immigrants in the same demographic. Numerous reputable studies have shown that the problem of crime in the United States is not caused or even aggravated by immigrants, regardless of their legal status.

Immigrants are taking our jobs. Wrong. CNN reports that immigrants are twice as likely to start businesses as U.S.-born citizens and that immigrants create 28% of all new businesses. Moreover, some immigrants work jobs Americans simply do not want. They are farm workers, janitors, chambermaids, busboys, dishwashers, gardeners, nannies, and household domestics. Those are not the careers most Americans seek. The “good jobs” they do “steal” are just because they’re better in that fieldnot because they’re immigrants (see below).

We need to secure the border first before tackling immigration reform.  Well for starters, the net migration from Mexico has practically fallen to zero. The federal government has spent more money on immigration enforcement ($18 billion) than they have on FBI, Secret Service, Drug Enforcement Administration, U.S. Marshalls, and the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives combined ($14.4 million). The government also spends about 15 times more on immigration enforcement than it did in the mid-1980s, adjusted for inflation. There are more than 20,000 border patrol agents stationed along the border now. So the border is quite secure right now. Lastly, roughly 40% of undocumented immigrants enter the US legally and overstay their visas.

America doesn’t want immigrants here. Well, quite the contrary, most Americans don’t want to kick them all out. In a Fox News Poll, it showed that 74% of the people they polled were in favor of allowing the 11 million illegal immigrant currently in the country to remain in the country and eventually years down the road qualify for U.S. citizenship, as long as they meet certain requirements like paying back taxes, learning English, and passing a background check.

Obama is giving the country to the illegal immigrants. This could be challenged. The Obama Administration has deported as many illegal immigrants in one term as the Bush Administration did in two. In fact, Obama is on track to deport more people than the US did from 1892-1997. As stated earlier, the Obama Administration has put many resources in stopping illegals.

Illegal aliens don’t contribute to the U.S. economy and they don’t pay taxes. I’m pretty sure everybody in this country pays taxes when they purchase anything. Most undocumented immigrants live in Texas and Florida. Neither state has a state income tax. When it comes to federal income tax—well, I believe we should be more concerned about the $305 billion revenue lost due to tax evasion for current US citizens.

Immigrants don’t contribute anything to the country. Currently, one in six college-educated adults in the US was born abroad. There are roughly 35 million immigrants ages 25 and older in America. Of those, 28% had a bachelor’s degree or higher (compared to 29% of American adults 25 and older). Immigrants represent nearly 28% of physicians, more than 31% of computer programmers, and over 47% of medical scientists.

The Truth. We need immigration reform YESTERDAY! This country was founded upon immigration. Keep the American vision alive by demanding that we become the Land of Opportunity again!

The Truth About Your Ice Bucket Challenge Donations

If you are reading this, you have probably heard of the ice bucket challenge.  In short, you get nominated to take the ice bucket challenge.  Once nominated you have two options that you are supposed to choose: either donate $100 to the Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis Association (ALSA) or pour a bucket of ice water over your head, donate $10 to the ALSA, and nominate three more people to take the ice bucket challenge.  “Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), often referred to as Lou Gehrig’s Disease, is a progressive neurodegenerative disease that affects nerve cells in the brain and the spinal cord.”  It is a terrible disease that ultimately results in death. Donating money to this charity sounds like a good cause.

There are some critics. There are articles and videos that claim ALSA does not spend the money correctly.  After coming across this dissent, I became curious and decided to investigate.  How does the ALSA spend their money and is that spending appropriated correctly? Let us find out.

In this video the author says that less than 8% of the 2012 ALSA expenses went to research.  The 2012 ALSA annual report (see page 12) confirms this claim.  In the table below we can see that 7.71% of ALSA expenses went towards research.  I found it interesting that the consolidated financial summary is accompanied by this comment “The consolidated summary has not been audited or reviewed by the auditors and is not part of their financial reports.” and decided to investigate.  After investigating, I found a discrepancy.  The consolidated financial summary reports a “total combined revenue” of $55,446,772 but the total expenses for 2012 is reported as $15,435,227.  I could not reconcile the numbers in this report.  Feel free to comment if you reconcile the numbers.

Using the expenses for 2012, we see an entirely different situation.  ALSA spent $3,904,240, or 25.3% of their 2012 expenses on research.  In addition, ALSA spent $4,629,111 or 30.0% on patient and community services, $1,859,100 or 12% on public and professional education and $3,269,624 or on fundraising.  In 2012, ALSA spent a total of $13,662,075 or 88.5% of their expenses on research, fundraising, or ALS awareness leaving 11.5% for overhead. Put another way, in 2012 88 cents out of every dollar spent by ALSA went to better understanding ALS.

We find a similar trend for the 2013 year.  In 2013 the ALSA had an expense total of $25,737,701, 66.7% more than in 2012.  Of the $25,737,701, ALSA spent $6,616,367, 25.7%, on research.  While ALSA proportionally spent similar amounts of research, the total dollar amount spent on research increased in 2013.  Additionally, 91.5% of ALSA spending in 2013 went towards research, fundraising or ALS awareness leaving only 8.5% for overhead.

The trend continues for the year ending in 2014.  In 2014 the ALSA had an expense total of $26,204,122.  Of this, ALSA spent $7,170,481, 27.4%, on research.  The ALSA spent 1.7% more in 2014 on research.  Additionally, 92.7% of ALSA spending in 2014 went towards research, fundraising or ALS awareness leaving only 7.3% for overhead.

Of course this doesn’t even begin to address money and awareness raised by the ice bucket challenge.  The ALSA has raised $79.7 million  as of August 25th.  You can rest assured knowing that, for the most part, your donations are being put to good use.  But don’t just take my word for it.  The ALSA meets all the Better Business Bureau’s 20 standards for charity accountability.  In addition Charity Navigator gives them a 4 star rating.

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